BCG perspectives on COVID-19 Dec.2020 1/2

Transcrição do slide acima (para facilidade de leitura)

Daily new COVID-19 cases are growing, and hospital systems are under pressure; however, overall economic recovery and vaccine progress is promising

  • The last few weeks have witnessed substantial growth in daily new cases across regions, especially in North America and Europe
  • Hospital systems are under immense pressure as cases surge; the vulnerable segments (e.g., exposure vulnerable) continue to be most impacted
  • Many large economies are expected to continue recovery in 2021 and may end closer to 2019 GDP; multiple consumption sectors are back to pre-crisis level.
  • Vaccine progress is very promising with 13 candidates already in Phase III, and seven with approval for limited or emergency use
  • There is a fast recovery scenario (i.e., defeating the pandemic by Q3 2021), but it requires three difficult interventions: (i) mastering “epinomics”, (ii) scaling the virus monitoring system, and (iii) perfecting the vaccine roll-out
  • 2021 will be impacted by trends that have emerged or have been accelerated by COVID-19; leaders must use Head, Heart, and Hands in the new reality

Priority groups are targeted, but public vaccine uptake is a challenge; economic performance is better than expected, retail goods sales have rebounded

  • Many countries plan to prioritize healthcare workers, elderly people, and people with comorbidities for early vaccination
  • Public uptake of the vaccine may be the largest challenge; key success factors are transparency/clarity, clear communication, and support from trusted voices
  • Economic development since the start of the pandemic has outperformed expectations: US, Europe, and global data has surprised to the upside
  • Retail goods sales have rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels across most countries; passenger vehicle sales see limited rebound, depending on geography

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Senior Advisor for Health Care Strategy to BCG — Boston Consulting Group